NFL Week 5 Betting Odds, Trends & Predictions

Oct 2015

POSTED IN Free Picks & Predictions + NFL Football | no comments

Betting on the NFL is always a challenge given just how sharp the lines are set. However, that hardly matters when you are just flat-out wrong with your picks, which is what happened to me in Week 4. On the year, my record for my top picks now stands at 5-7 after a very rough day.

Not to be discouraged, I have broken down the stats, facts and betting trends for all of this Sunday’s NFL matchups to release this week’s Top 3 Picks using betting odds from BetOnline.

Sunday, Oct. 11

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans

The Bills have been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride through their first four weeks with solid wins over Indianapolis and Miami, a shootout loss to New England and a no-show last week at home against the New York Giants in a 24-10 loss as 6.5-point favorites. There is still quite a bit to be excited about when it comes to Buffalo, especially when it comes to putting points on the board.

Tennessee is coming off an early bye following a 1-2 straight-up start. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has shown some flashes of brilliance in his first three games, but he has also looked like a rookie at times. The concern in this matchup is a defense that is 22^nd in the league in points allowed and that will work against the Titans this Sunday afternoon in another loss.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Jaguars are off to a predictable 1-3 start, but they were able to cover against Indianapolis last week as four-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2 against the spread. They are still having trouble scoring with an average of 15.5 points a game, but with Blake Bortles throwing the ball and TJ Yeldon running it, this offense continues to move in the right direction.

Tampa Bay is going through some major growing pains with Jameis Winston at the helm as its starting quarterback at 1-3 both SU and ATS. The rookie has thrown for 965 yards and six touchdowns, but he has completed just 54.9 percent of his 133 attempts and he has been picked-off seven times with two going back for scores. I will take Jacksonville and the points in a matchup between two very young teams.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)

Denver is one of six undefeated teams in the NFL after four weeks of play, but there are still some cracks in the foundation with an offense that is ranked 29^th in the league in rushing and 27^th in total yards per game. The Broncos’ defense remains as solid as a rock, but unless it can score with the ball this is the type of divisional matchup that could easily remain close to the final gun.

The Raiders are off to a 2-2 start both SU and ATS and there have been some positive signs that they may have turned the corner towards a much brighter future with second-year quarterback Derek Carr throwing the ball to rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper. These two have connected 24 times this season for 339 yards and two scores. Look for this duo to come up big again this Sunday as Oakland stuns the Broncos with a SU win in my “upset special” of the week.