SEC Football Week 4 Betting Odds, Trends & Pick of the Week


Sep 2015

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Tennessee Volunteers against Florida Gators

The SEC has earned the reputation as being the top power conference in the nation the past several seasons with Alabama as its poster child, but that may no longer be the case following Mississippi’s stunning 43-37 victory over the Crimson Tide as a nine-point road underdog on 5Dimes’ closing betting odds. This marks the second time in two seasons that the Rebels have knocked Alabama from the ranks of the unbeaten.

The net result is the Tide falling all the way to No. 12 in the latest AP Top 25. Ole Miss jumped all the way to No. 3 in the rankings in a tie with TCU. Georgia another one of the new “top dogs” in the SEC at 3-0 straight-up (2-1 against the spread) and its convincing 52-20 victory against South Carolina this past week as a 15-point favorite on the road has the Bulldogs sitting at No. 7 in the new AP poll.  The LSU Tigers are next on the list at No. 8 after beating-up on Auburn in Saturday’s 45-21 romp as six-point home favorites.

Texas A&M is now ranked No. 14 following its 44-27 win against Nevada as a heavy 32-point home favorite to move to 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS). The only other nationally ranked team in the SEC right now is 3-0 Missouri at No. 25. The Tigers had to grind-out a 9-6 victory against Connecticut to stay perfect on the year, but they are now 0-3 ATS after failing to cover as 21-point home favorites.

Turning to Week 4’s slate in the SEC, one of the top head-to-head matchups pits Texas A&M on the road against Arkansas. I went with the Razorbacks last week as my top SEC pick as 9.5-point home favorites against Texas Tech and they let me down in a big way with an outright 35-24 loss. Look for Texas A&M to pile on to their early misery as a seven-point road favorite for this Saturday’s contest.

Ole Miss will be back in action on Saturday as a 26.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt and while it is highly doubtful it will lose this game SU, it could be a good time to make a small play on the Commodores and the points in what could easily be a letdown game for the Rebels. Vanderbilt is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games against Mississippi.

SEC Pick of the Week

The Razorbacks’ loss this past Saturday dropped me to 1-2 on the year with my top SEC weekly picks, but that is not going to stop me from making a bold play in this Saturday’s Tennessee at Florida game. The Volunteers have been listed as slight two-point road underdogs on 5Dimes’ opening betting odds and I really like their chances to win this game SU.

Tennessee is off to a 2-1 start (SU and ATS) following routine wins against Bowling Green and Western Carolina wrapped around a 31-24 loss to Oklahoma on Sept. 12 as a two-point underdog at home. The Volunteers have been able to rack-up an average of 246 yards a game on the ground, which should serve them well on the road this week in Gainesville. Jalen Hurd has rushed for 300 yards and Alvin Kamara has added another 195 yards on the ground while averaging 7.5 yards a carry.

The Gators are off to a perfect 3-0 start SU following Saturday’s 14-9 victory against Kentucky in their conference opener. They covered as 3.5-point road favorites to improve to 2-1 ATS. While Florida has been able to take care of business so far, it is going to have to play much better than it has against an underrated Tennessee team. The fact that the Gators were held to just 14 points against the Wildcats tells me that they are probably a bit overrated.

There is no doubt that the Volunteers come into this game with something to prove following a decade of SU losses to Florida and I think this is the year they get it done.