NFL Futures Betting By Tom Wilkinson NFL betting doesn’t just start when the teams take the field for preseason games in August.  It really starts as the NFL draft arrives and gamblers take a shot at betting NFL futures.  What team is going to win this year’s Super Bowl?  What team is going to win their division?  How many games do you think your favorite team will win this season?  These are some of the questions you ask when you are looking at placing an NFL future bet. Just after the NFL draft takes place NFL future betting starts to take off.  Some of the odds may be adjusted slightly based on a team having a very good or very poor NFL draft.  Just like in other sports, when we look to make an NFL future bet we want to get some value.  The NFL has really become a league full of parity,  as nearly every team believes they have a legitimate chance at winning the Super Bowl.  NFL future betting can present some good opportunities because nearly every team can make a claim at having a chance to win the Super Bowl. Let’s begin by looking at a few teams as we approach the 2004 NFL season and see if we can find a couple of teams that really present some good value on the NFL futures board.  As with any other future bet,  it is very difficult to tie up money for many months without getting at least double digit odds.  That narrows our choices quite a bit.  Usually to get some decent value the team we look at to win next year’s Super Bowl has to have had a losing record the previous season.  The question we ask ourselves is,  can a losing team from one season turn it around the next?   The answer is definitely yes in the ultra-competitive NFL.  We routinely see teams that struggle one year be a division winner the next.  This past year’s runner up in the Super Bowl,  Carolina,  was 7-9 the previous year.  The Super Bowl champion Patriots were only 9-7 the previous year.  Those are just a couple of examples of teams that turned it around quickly and gave bettors excellent value.  New England did have a winning record but remember they went from 9-7 to 14-2 for a five game improvement.  What teams this past season had a losing record that we give a good chance to improve and make a Super Bowl run?  The New York Jets finished a disappointing 6-10 in 2003 but have a superstar young QB in Chad Pennington,  a solid running game with Curtis Martin,   and they could easily make a strong Super Bowl run for 2004.  They have odds of about 25-1 to win the Super Bowl and look like an interesting possibility.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers present some interesting value as they were 7-9 last season, and can now be found at over 10-1 odds in many places.  Any time we can get John Gruden at double-digit odds it is worth considering.  Another team that presents an interesting opportunity is the Atlanta Falcons.  They were missing Michael Vick virtually the entire season,  and we know in the NFL that without a great QB it is difficult to win.  The Falcons finished 5-11 last season and substantial improvement should be expected.  The odds of 20-1 are not really as good as they should be since Vick is a marquee player but they still are worth noting. Another way to bet NFL futures is to bet on how many games your team will win for the season.  Oddsmakers set a number,  and you can go over or under that number,  depending upon how successful you think your team will be.  Obviously if we picked some Super Bowl surprises we would also want to consider those same teams for betting over or under their amount of wins.  We can also bet against a team we think is going to have a rough season.  If we believe that Kansas City will have a hard time duplicating their 13 win season,  we could bet the Chiefs under their projected win total.  Those totals are usually not available to bet until a couple of months before the season,  and unlike Super Bowl futures,  are taken down when the season begins.  Usually with Super Bowl futures,  the odds stay up well into the season and are adjusted up or down depending upon the team’s current success. As we look to bet our NFL futures we always look to take a team to surprise and give us some value for our bet.  There are other teams to consider as the NFL season approaches,  so give a long look to teams that had a losing record last season and are poised to really improve.  Teams like Washington and Cleveland may be poised to improve themselves and may be worth a look on the NFL futures board.  My top pick though would be the New York Jets as I look for them to be much improved and make a real run this season.  My NFC selection would be Tampa Bay as I expect Gruden to really bounce back from a losing season and be a top Super Bowl contender.  In the NFL there is really no such thing as a long shot since the league is so competitive but perhaps the Browns have a possibility to improve and at 50-1 they would have an outside chance.