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NFL Proposition Betting

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL proposition wagering has become more popular in the last few years especially NFL Super Bowl proposition wagering. An NFL proposition is a very specific bet offered by the sportsbook and is very common on big games in the NFL.  NFL Monday night football,  NFL playoffs games,  and of course the Super Bowl,  are very popular for proposition wagering.

Some examples of NFL proposition wagers are:  last team to score,  most passing yards by Tom Brady,  total number of sacks by both teams,  will any team score three times in a row?   Those are a few examples of NFL proposition wagers that are offered on selected key games.   Monday night football has become a proposition-betting event in Las Vegas and around the world as various NFL wagers are available for both teams.  Usually the NFL propositions will have both QB’s included with over-unders on passing yardage,  TD passes, and interceptions.  Often key running backs will be included as will star receivers.  Monday night football is such an event that sportsbooks in Las Vegas and around the world want to give the bettors as many options as possible to increase betting interest.  Propositions are usually geared by the sportsbooks to the recreational bettor to increase interest and to give the bettor as many options as possible for the biggest game of the NFL week.

I have always found propositions to be an interesting sidelight to Monday night football and they can present some wagering value.  Bookmakers in Las Vegas and around the world put up propositions on these big games but they don’t want wise guys playing them because the numbers are not as solid.  There is no universal line on propositions and,  therefore,  each individual sportsbook usually puts up their own set of NFL propositions.  There is always risk when you put up your own numbers and sportsbooks prefer that they get a lot of low volume action instead of getting one sided on any particular prop.  The bettor can do the same research and perhaps a little bit more on any NFL proposition that sportsbooks put out.  That gives the bettor a chance to have an advantage and in sports betting that is what it is all about.

What do we look for in NFL proposition bets?  Very often bookmakers use basic statistics when formulating NFL propositions.  We,  as bettors,  can dig a little deeper and break down the stats a little further by using home/away statistics and head to head matchup stats.  This gives us a little bit of an edge and we need it,  because most books use a 20, 30, or 40 cent line when putting up NFL propositions.   That means the difference between the two lines is something like this:  First QB to throw an interception,  Tom Brady
-150,  Trent Green +110.  We need as much of an advantage as possible to be able to profit when we are betting into a 30 or 40 cent line.

The most popular NFL propositions are always found for the Super Bowl.  These wagers have taken on a life of their own and are becoming a bigger part of the NFL’s biggest game every year.  The Imperial Palace in Las Vegas is known as the king of proposition bets as they have come up with the largest number nearly every year.  They not only come up with everything imaginable for players in the Super Bowl,  they also find other sports to match up with the Super Bowl.  Past Super Bowls have found propositions like this one,  Which will amount to more  -  touchdown passes by the Raiders' Rich Gannon or the total number of goals in a British soccer match between West Ham and Manchester United?   Or how about the most famous proposition ever made for a Super Bowl.  It was in 1986 as the Chicago Bears routed the New England Patriots.  The proposition involved Chicago Bears defensive lineman William  "the refrigerator"   Perry and asked whether or not he would score a touchdown in the game.  Odds ranged anywhere from 10-1 to 20-1 on Perry scoring a TD and when he scored from 1 yard out in the 2nd half it cost the sportsbooks in Nevada a lot of money.   Proposition wagers are usually not that hurtful to sportsbooks.  That was just one occasion where the wise guys and the public got together and pounded a media generated proposition.

Whenever you see NFL propositions offered on a game,  give them a look and see if making a wager can add to your profit and excitement.  It is always nice to have an interesting sideline to the NFL’s marquee games.

 


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