NFL Predictions By Tom Wilkinson
It is never to early to start with NFL predictions and with the draft just completed now seems like a good time. NFL future odds are available on which teams will win their conferences and ultimately the Super Bowl. I’ll take a look at a few teams that made great additions during the draft and some that present us with real value for the upcoming season.
The first team that made a big splash during the draft and will be much improved is the Detroit Lions. They added two potential superstars in the first round getting WR Roy Williams from Texas and RB Kevin Jones from Virginia Tech. Head coach Steve Mariucci is well known for his offensive coaching skills and now he has the players to make this Lion’s offense a real threat. Taking a flyer on the Lions to win the Super Bowl is not as far fetched as it sounds. Detroit is as high as
100-1 to win it all and stranger things have happened. The NFL is very competitive and teams turn it around quickly. The Lions already have a potential star QB in Joey Harrington as well as a good young receiver in Charles Rogers. Now they add superb speed to what could be a great offense. We also may want to consider playing Lion’s games over the total this season, as their offense could be explosive and result in many high scoring affairs.
Another team to take a strong look at is the Washington Redskins. Hiring Joe Gibbs was the first step in the right direction for owner Daniel Snyder and he did not stop there. They bring in veteran QB Mark Brunell and add superstar running back Clinton Portis to a team that will be much improved. They also made some nice defensive additions and got perhaps the best defensive player in the draft as they took Miami DB Sean Taylor. The Redskins are not the longshot that the Lions are,
but they are very realistic for a Super Bowl run at odds of 20-1. It is not often that you can get those types of odds on a team that has a realistic chance to make a title run.
If you take a look at my NFL futures article you will see I am high on the New York Jets to make good improvement this year. I also look for the Oakland Raiders to make improvements. They greatly improved their defense getting Warren Sapp and Ted Washington. The Raiders were 4-12 last season and I expect improvement to a probable winning record this season. What about teams that are likely to be overrated and, therefore, heavily bet for this upcoming season? Let’s first look at the
Philadelphia Eagles. They got loudmouth Terrell Owens to bolster the offense and now everyone is picking them for the Super Bowl. Maybe they will make it, maybe not. I do know that they will be totally overvalued all season long and will be a good go against when betting. Kansas City finished 13-3 and could be looking at a fall. The Chiefs still have a horrible defense and are a key offensive injury away from a collapse. Teams like New England and Tennessee had great seasons last
year and will be hard pressed to repeat that success. I like both head coaches and don’t predict a serious fall, but repeating 14-2 and 12-4 records will be very difficult.
Something else we want to keep an eye on in regards to NFL predictions is the old adage that what goes up must come down. Last year the top teams in the NFL against the spread were the New England Patriots (14-4-1), Philadelphia Eagles (11-7), Green Bay Packers (11-7), Indianapolis Colts (11-7-1) and the Kansas City Chiefs (10-7). It is always worth considering going against the top against the spread teams the following year. Going against Philadelphia and Kansas City is already
something I was looking to do and these numbers make it even more appealing. What about teams that had poor records against the spread last year? We should look for those teams to improve this season. The teams with the worst ATS records last year were the New York Giants (3-11-2), the Oakland Raiders (3-12-1), and the New York Jets (5-8-3). Three teams finished 6-10 ATS; they were the Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers, and Arizona Cardinals. You already know I look for rebound
years from the Raiders and the Jets. The Giants got Manning in the draft and can’t be any worse than last year so they should improve.
Whenever we make NFL predictions we always have to keep in mind that things change as the season progresses and we need to adjust our wagers accordingly. Injuries, motivation, and surprises will occur during the season and we need to be aware of these factors. As we approach the NFL season let’s consider those teams that we see improving and those that we see on the decline. Perhaps we can profit from these early predictions.
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