Super Bowl Betting Systems
There is a huge selection of different betting systems that bettors have tried, used, and come up with. These betting systems are supposed to help a bettor make a more accurate prediction when trying to figure out which NFL team is going to win a certain match. In the Football Betting Systems; Regular Season* article, we spoke about a great system to use during the NFL regular season; however, the Super Bowl is a completely different competition. The Super Bowl is such a high-stress, full on competition time that it is impossible to tell which team will actually win, but with the overall team stat betting system. For the bettor’s convenience, it comes in a simplified version, and will be explained part by part.
Overall Team Stat System
The Super Bowl is battled between the NFC and the AFC conference champions, and as such, the bettor needs to read up on those two specific team’s statistics.
What Type of Stats
For this betting system, the bettor needs to take into account the team statistics during the regular season and the playoffs of the current NFL season. However, they also need to take into account each of the team’s Super Bowl stats, like how many Super Bowls they have won and when, since the team that has won a Super Bowl within the last 3 years, will have most likely played with the same team that they won with; this keeps the team performance in balance.
The Betting System
This betting system uses the stats that each team has in order to assign a number of points to them based on certain criteria. The system itself is:
|
Points Given |
If a Team |
|
10 |
Has won a Super Bowl in last three years |
|
8 |
Whose opponent is playing in first Super Bowl of franchise history |
|
8 |
Allowed the fewer defensive rushes |
|
7 |
Best straight up win/loss record |
|
7 |
Most offensive rushes |
|
5 |
Lower defensive rush average per carry |
|
4 |
Best net kick/punt touchdown returns |
|
4 |
Better record against the point spread |
|
4 |
Superior net penalty yards |
|
3.5 |
Best yards per pass attempt |
|
3.5 |
Given up the fewest points |
|
3.5 |
Allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns |
|
3 |
Has most sacks |
|
2.5 |
Fewest offensive pass attempts |
Based on the breakdown of each of the Super Bowl contenders’ stats, the bettor can then assign a certain amount of points to each. Obviously, the team with the higher number of assigned points is the predicted winner of the match. There are obviously other stats that can be taken into account when using this form of betting system, especially for the Super Bowl; this is a simplified version so the bettors know what kind of system can be used.
Super Bowl Example
For instance, if the 2013 Super Bowl matchup is between the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers:
|
|
New England Patriots |
Green Bay Packers |
Reason |
|
10 |
Has won a Super Bowl in last three years |
||
|
Whose opponent is playing in first Super Bowl of franchise history |
|||
|
8 |
Allowed the fewer defensive rushes |
||
|
7 |
Best straight up win/loss record |
||
|
7 |
Most offensive rushes |
||
|
5 |
Lower defensive rush average per carry |
||
|
4 |
Best net kick/punt touchdown returns |
||
|
4 |
Better record against the point spread |
||
|
4 |
Superior net penalty yards |
||
|
3.5 |
Best yards per pass attempt |
||
|
3.5 |
Given up the fewest points |
||
|
3.5 |
Allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns |
||
|
3 |
Has most sacks |
||
|
2 |
Fewest offensive pass attempts |
||
|
Total Points |
31 |
33.5 |
Based on this system, the Green Bay Packers have a slightly better chance of winning, just a 7.4% better chance. With such a close system, it will all depend on the bettor and how confident they feel about this decision.
Betting System Advantages
In order for a betting system to have any kind of advantage they need to be based on something quantitative, i.e. statistics. Basing a wager solely on feeling or data that cannot be repeated, such as team spirit or motivation, will not give a bettor a clear-cut prediction on which team could win the Super Bowl.
Numbers Never Lie
No matter how confident a sports fan is numbers will never lie to them. This is a reason why betting systems are such an advantage for bettors. Basing a decision of cold, hard facts, such as the overall team statistics, will prove to have a better winning ratio than one based on intuition and instinct. As such, bettors need to get very friendly with the stats during the NFL season.
Higher Success Rate
Bettors using certain betting systems have been able to determine whether or not the system has a high rate of success. Betting systems include Handicapping, Stats Systems, and even Point Spread Differential systems. These football betting systems can prove that a bettor using them will have higher chances of picking a winner, than those bettors that simply rely on themselves.
Betting System Preferences
Bettors always have the option of picking and researching their own betting systems. Always remember that these systems are not 100% accurate, so do not assume this of any betting system, and if you ever encounter a system that claims 100% accuracy, it is probably fake.
