NFL Betting Predictions

NFL Betting Predictions

Throughout the NFL season and the countless matchups that occur, bettors will want to know which teams have better chances of winning the game, conference, and even the Super Bowl. This is a quick guide to help bettors pick the right teams when wanting to wager on them. I will mainly be using Futures bets, as these reflect what each team’s chances are of making it to the Super Bowl and winning. There will also be a section to show what betting lines look like and how to use that to predict the outcome of a match and place an appropriate wager. There are weekly, conference, and Super Bowl predictions that can be used to help guide a bettor towards the right wager.

 

Weekly NFL Predictions

Weekly NFL predictions are based on the week to week gaming schedule, for instance during the regular season where each team plays 16 games. As they are weekly predictions, they change constantly and one week’s prediction will not work the same for a different week, even if it is the same matchup. Bettors would have to look at the weekly schedule, along with the odds that are giving to each; basically looking at the betting lines. For the purpose of this example, I will be using the betting lines provided by the BetOnline sportsbook, and only using a few of the matchups.

Sunday, Sep 09, 2012 – NFL Football Schedule and Lines

Time

Team

Spread

Money Line

Total Points

01:00 PM

Indianapolis Colts

+10 -115

+405

Ov 42 -110

Chicago Bears

-10 -105

-500

Un 42 -110

01:00 PM

Philadelphia Eagles

-9 +100

-380

Ov 41 -110

Cleveland Browns

+9 -120

+320

Un 41 -110

01:00 PM

Buffalo Bills

+3 -115

+145

Ov 41 -110

New York Jets

-3 -105

-165

Un 41 -110

We can know predict which teams will win based on the weekly schedule and matchups.

(1)    The Chicago Bears are predicted to beat the Indianapolis Colts, and they are given extremely large odds on either end. The reason for this huge difference is the fact that the Colts have been doing horribly this season, and they are rated as having poor offense and defense; whereas the Bears have a good record, as well as having a much better offense and defense.

(2)    The Philadelphia Eagles are shown to have better chances of beating the Cleveland Browns. This is a fair assumption since the Eagles have a much better offense than the Browns, and they have a slightly better defense. This would mean that the Eagles have the upper hand. The large difference between odds is also a good indication that the Eagles have much better chances of winning.

(3)    The matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets is a much closer matchup, as represented by both their odds and their stats. The reason it is a somewhat more balanced matchup is because the Bills have a slightly better offense, while the Jets have a slightly better defense. With their team stats and records being so close, it is harder to figure out which team will actually win. However, they are showing that the Jets are better positioned to win, seeing as their defense could be the game changer.

 

NFL Conference Predictions

There are two conferences, the AFC and the NFC, and the winners of each are the ones to face-off at the Super Bowl to determine which is best.

NFC Championship Prediction

There is a two-team toss up to who will become the NFC Champion and it is between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. To better make a prediction on which of these two great teams will be victorious, we have to compare them side by side, based on their offense and defense.

Green Bay Packers

San Francisco 49ers

Rank

Offensive

Rank

1

Average Score For

11

3

Total Yards

26

27

Rushing Yards

8

3

Passing Yards

29

 

Green Bay Packers

San Francisco 49ers

Rank

Defensive

Rank

19

Average Score Against

2

32

Total Yards

4

14

Rushing Yards

1

32

Passing Yards

16

Looking at how they are matched up, it is no surprise these are the two contenders for the NFC Championship. I would pick the Green Bay Packers over the San Francisco 49ers because:

(1)    I believe offense always wins the games. The Packers have an excellent passing game, and the 49ers are unable to defend well against passing.

(2)    Even though the Packers defense is one of the worst in the League, they have made strides to improve and by the end of the regular season I am sure their defense will move up the ranks.

AFC Championship Prediction

The same thing has to be done for the AFC Championship, comparing the two main contenders for the title is the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans.

New England Patriots

Houston Texans

Rank

Offensive

Rank

3

Average Score For

10

2

Total Yards

13

20

Rushing Yards

2

2

Passing Yards

18

 

New England Patriots

Houston Texans

Rank

Defensive

Rank

15

Average Score Against

4

31

Total Yards

2

17

Rushing Yards

4

31

Passing Yards

3

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the Texans are going to with the AFC Championship. Sure the Patriots have experience and one of the best offenses in the League, but they have proven to continually have problems winning against strong defensive team, which the Texans certainly are.

Reason the Texans will win:

(1)    Their offense is above average, and it improving as the season moves on. They have two great, young quarterbacks, T.J. Yates and Matt Schaub, who are proving that they are good at what they do. Even more so, the Texans have a great rushing game, which most teams in the NFL are weak at defending against.

(2)    Along with their improving offense, they have one of the best defenses in their Conference, and even the NFL. Couple an excellent defense with a good offense, and that is a winning combo. No other team in the NFL has the potential that the Texans have.

Many may not share my enthusiasm that there might be a new powerhouse that could take down the Patriots, but the numbers do not lie, and so far the Texans have proven their worth; all that is left to do is wait and watch.

 

NFL Super Bowl Prediction

It is nowhere near time for the Super Bowl to start, but we can start to make our own predictions based on what we know now; these types of bets are called Futures and more for entertainment purposes since they take so long to payout.

The current top six contenders for the Super Bowl Championship, and their odds of succeeding, taken from the Bovada Sportsbook are:

Team

Odds

New England Patriots

11/2

Green Bay Packers

6/1

San Francisco 49ers

9/1

Philadelphia Eagles

11/1

Houston Texans

12/1

Pittsburgh Steelers

14/1

For more odds visit Bovava.lv

From our earlier predictions, four of the teams came up as contenders to win the AFC and NFC Championships. Based on those predictions, it would seem that the oddsmakers believe that the Packers have pretty good chances of winning, but the Texans are relatively far from 1st place.

I will stick by my earlier predictions and predict that the Super Bowl will be played by the Green Bay Packers and the Houston Texans. However, from this matchup there can only be one winner. Matching each of the team’s stats, side by side, can a bettor truly get a feel for how a match between these two could play out.

Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans

Rank

Offensive

Rank

1

Average Score For

10

3

Total Yards

13

27

Rushing Yards

2

3

Passing Yards

18

Rank

Defensive

Rank

19

Average Score Against

4

32

Total Yards

2

14

Rushing Yards

4

32

Passing Yards

3

 

Analysis

The Packers have a much better passing game than their rushing, and the Texans are very good at running the ball and are average at passing. What could be a game changer here is the fact that the Packers have a horrible defense, while the Texans have one of the best. The Texans defense could in fact match up against the Packers offense quite well, especially in the passing game. However, the Packers would not do very well against the Texans passing or rushing, which could give the Texans the advantage. The one factor the Texans lack is Super Bowl experience which could hurt them greatly.

Prediction

Based on the numbers and statistics, it would seem more probable that the Texans beat the Packers. I would have to go with the Texans to win the Super Bowl. If they are able to beat the New England Patriots, they could certainly win against the Green Bay Packers.

 

Your Picks

These picks are based on current statistics, which is used to predict how the teams will perform in the future. Bettors should always take information and use it to their advantage, but they should not rely on it completely. So, take these predictions and compare them against your own to get a better feel for predicting outcomes. Remember, Futures change weekly as they are based on current activity but are played out in a future event. Only play Futures if you have the money to spare or are looking for a little entertainment.