Big Ten Football Week 3 Betting Odds, Trends & Pick of the Week

Sep 2015

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Michigan State made the most noise in the Big Ten last week with its huge 31-28 victory against Oregon, but the Spartans failed to cover against the spread as five-point home favorites on 5Dimes’ closing betting odds. Ohio State is still at the top of the list as the top-ranked team in the nation, but Michigan State moved into that coveted No. 4 spot in the AP’s latest Top 25 following last Saturday’s win.

Speaking of the Buckeyes, they are coming off a 38-0 shutout of Hawaii in Week 2, but they could not cover as 42.5-point home favorites. They will be at home this week against Northern Illinois as 34.5-point favorites. The total for that game has been set at 66.5. The defending national champs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and the total has gone OVER in nine of Ohio State’s last 10 games played at home.

The only other Big Ten teams ranked in the AP Top 25 are Northwestern at No. 23 and Wisconsin at No. 24. The Wildcats have probably been the biggest surprise in the conference so far with a huge 16-6 victory over Stanford as 10-point underdogs at home to get things started. Last Saturday they rolled over Eastern Illinois 41-0 to cover as 24-point home favorites.

Next on the schedule is a road game against Duke this Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats have been listed as 3.5-point road underdogs with the total set at 48. Northwestern comes into this Big Ten/ACC clash with a 5-1 record ATS in its last six games and it is a profitable 12-6 ATS in its last 18 road games.

Wisconsin bounced-back from a 35-17 loss to Alabama as a 12.5-point underdog in its season opener with a convincing 58-0 shutout of Miami (Ohio) as a 30.5-point favorite at home. This Saturday the Badgers will play host to Troy as 35.5-point favorites with the total set at 58.5. Wisconsin has failed to cover in four of its last six games and the total has gone OVER in its last five home games.

Big Ten Pick of the Week

After hitting my Week 1 Big Ten pick, I was on the wrong end of Iowa’s 31-17 victory over in-state rival Iowa State as a three-point road favorite in last week’s top Big Ten play.

This week I have turned my attention to Saturday afternoon’s matchup between the ACC’s Virginia Tech Hokies and the Purdue Boilermakers. The betting odds in this matchup have Virginia Tech favored by six points on the road and the total has been set at 48.

The Hokies opened the season with a 42-24 loss to Ohio State as 13.5-point underdogs, but they quickly bounced back last week with a 42-3 rout over Furman as heavy 35-point home favorites. What has impressed me about Virginia Tech in both of these games is a revitalized offensive attack that is evenly balanced between the pass and the run. Wide receiver Isaiah Ford has hauled-in eight catches for 138 yards with three going for scores and Travon McMillian has anchored the running game with 124 yards on just 12 carries.

Purdue is also 1-1 both SU and ATS following a 41-31 loss to Marshall as a seven-point road underdog and a 38-14 victory against Indiana State as a 15-point home favorite. There is no question that the Boilermakers can put points on the board as well, but there has to be some concern on the other side of the ball. This defense has allowed an average of 379.5 total yards through its first two games.

Virginia Tech is 9-4 SU in its last 13 road games while covering ATS in four of its last six games on the road. The Boilermakers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall and they have dropped four of their last five home games SU. While the Hokies did have their issues stopping the top team in the Big Ten, they will have little problem getting past one of the worst teams in the conference by more than the six-point spread.