Football Regular Season Betting Systems
When a bettor wants to try and predict which team will have the best chances of winning a game, or even the conference and Super Bowl, they will often try to devise and make up different ways of calculating those odds. These are what are called Football Betting Systems; methods to try and predict a particular NFL or college football team’s performance. There is a wide selection of systems, some with better track records than the others, and they all use different information to try and predict a winner. There is a regular season betting system that uses point differential as a form of calculating a team’s chances of winning a particular match.
Point Differential System
This system uses the specific team’s number of average points scored, and points allowed per game. As such, it compares a team’s strength versus the opposition of the teams they have actually played, which means the numbers are more accurate than using league averages. This is a several step system, that although may look long and hard to understand, and it takes time and practice to get used, but after that, the bettor will be able to perform this particular system without hesitation. This system compares the Home team versus the Away team. For the following examples we will be using the Green Bay Packers as our Away team, and use the San Francisco 49ers as our Home team.
Step 1: Schedule Arrangement
List all of the opponents and schedule for the team you want to compare, as it will help organize the stats a lot easier. The Green Bay Packers regular season matchup schedule will look like this:
Green Bay Packers |
VS. |
San Diego Chargers |
Green Bay Packers |
VS. |
Cleveland Browns |
Green Bay Packers |
VS. |
Cincinnati Bengals |
Green Bay Packers |
VS. |
Kansas City Chiefs |
While the San Francisco 49ers regular season schedule will look like this:
San Francisco 49ers |
VS. |
Minnesota Vikings |
San Francisco 49ers |
VS. |
Houston Texans |
San Francisco 49ers |
VS. |
Denver Broncos |
San Francisco 49ers |
VS. |
San Diego Chargers |
Regular season matchup schedules can be found at Bovada.com.
Step 2: Away Team Stats
This next step is where the bettor will input the data acquired from how well the Away team, the Packers, performed, as well as how the opposition performed. Looking at the 4 games the Packers has played against these opponents. If the Packers have had scored a total of 81 points, and have 98 point scored against, the bettor needs to divide the totals by the 4 games, and they will get a 20.25 point average for scoring and 24.5 point average of points score against. Using this system, find the averages of the Packers opposition:
Team |
Points Scored |
Points Allowed |
Chargers |
21.3 |
18.4 |
Browns |
19.5 |
22.7 |
Bengals |
20.8 |
21.9 |
Chiefs |
22.6 |
19.7 |
Average Points |
21.05 |
20.68 |
This means that the average number of points that the opposition has been able to score is 21.05, while they have allowed an average of 20.68 points scored against.
Step 3: Calculating the Away Team’s Average
During this step divide the Packers offensive average vs. the opposition’s offensive average. 20.25 points divided by 21.05, which is 0.96. In other words, the Packers are performing at 96% of the offensive average. The same calculation is done, but for the points allowed. 24.5 points divided by 20.68, which is 1.18. This means the Packers are performing 18% worse than the opposition’s defense.
Remember
: A value of 1.00 would mean the team performs at the average, while any value under 1.00 means the team performs above average by a certain percent, and a value above 1.00 means they perform below the average by a certain percent.
Step 4: Home Team Stats
The next step is to calculate the Home teams, the 49ers, and their opposition’s stats. The 49ers have scored a total of 83 points, while allowing a total of 79 points. This, in the 4 games, means they have an average of 20.75 points scored, and 19.75 points allowed. The oppositions break-up is:
Team |
Points Scored |
Points Allowed |
Vikings |
23.2 |
21.4 |
Texans |
20.3 |
20.7 |
Broncos |
18.3 |
19.6 |
Chargers |
22.1 |
18.8 |
Average Points |
20.975 |
20.125 |
Step 5: Calculating Home Team’s Average
The same calculations are done like in Step 3, but for the Home team. The 49ers average points scored, 20.75 divided by 20.975 is 0.98; the 49ers perform at 98% of the offensive average. The 49ers points allowed, 19.75 divided by 20.125 is 0.98; the 49ers perform 2% better than the average defense.
Step 6: Adding the Percentages
This is a two-part step. During this step, the bettor will add the Away team’s Offensive percentage with the Home team’s defensive percentage, and divide by two in order to get the Away team’s performance figure. The bettor will then add the Home team’s offensive percentage with the Away team’s defensive percentage and divide by two, in order to get the Home team’s performance figure.
Offense Percentage |
Defense Percentage |
|
Green Bay Packers (Away) |
0.96 |
1.18 |
San Francisco 49ers (Home) |
0.98 |
0.98 |
The Packers performance figure is (0.96 + 0.98 / 2 = 0.97) 0.97. The 49ers performance figure is (1.18 + 0.98 / 2 = 1.08) 1.08.
Step 7: Average Team Points
This step requires us to go back to the Packers and 49ers average points scored and allowed. Add the Away team’s points scored with the Home team’s points allowed, and divide by two to get the Away team’s base offensive number. Add the Home team’s points scored with the Away team’s points allowed, and divide by two to get the Home team’s base offensive number.
Points Scored |
Points Allowed |
|
Green Bay Packers (Away) |
20.25 |
24.5 |
San Francisco 49ers (Home) |
20.75 |
19.75 |
The Packers base offensive number is (20.25 + 19.75 / 2 = 20) 20. The 49ers base offensive number is (20.75 + 24.5 / 2 = 22.625) 22.625.
Step 8: Away team’s Predicted Points Scored
This is when the bettor will predict how many points the Away team will score during this match. The better needs to take into account that the Away teams have a -1.5 point, as they are playing on the road. Take the Packers team offensive number (20) and multiply it by its performance figure (0.97), and then subtract the 1.5 points. The predicted amount of points scored by the Packers is (20 x 0.97 – 1.5 = 17.9), 17.9 points.
Step 9: Home team’s Predicted Points Scored
This is when the bettor will predict how many points the Home team will score during this match. The better needs to take into account that the Home teams have a +1.5 point, as they are playing at home. Take the 49ers team offensive number (22.625) and multiply it by its performance figure (1.08), and then add the 1.5 points. The predicted amount of points scored by the Packers is (22.625 x 1.08 + 1.5 = 25.935), 25.935 points.
Step 10: Final Outcome Prediction
From the above numbers, the predicted outcome is Green Bay Packers 17.9, and San Francisco 49ers 25.935. This makes the point difference of 8.035.
Stats and more team information can be found at Bovada.com
Using the Point Differential System
In order for the bettor to use this system to its full potential they need to be writing down the team stats as the season progresses, usually after four weeks of games, the bettor can start to use the stats to predict the future outcomes. Bettors should also look for a minimum of a 5-point difference between the point spread and the predicted line before ever placing a wager. The bettor would place a bet on the 49ers if they were favored to win by 3 points or less, or place a bet on the Packers if the 49ers were favored by 13 points or more.
Find Point Spreads and other bets at Bovada.com